Access to reliable weather forecasts has improved dramatically over recent decades, yet meaningful, actionable flood warnings often remain out of reach—especially for communities in the world’s rainiest regions. In many places, forecasts are inaccurate or too generic, sometimes describing days as simply “sunny with thunderstorms.” These broad predictions rarely provide the information necessary to protect lives or property from severe flooding events.
The importance of timely and localised flood warnings becomes evident when examining events such as the Río de Oro overflow in February 2005, which resulted in the destruction of 5,000 homes and left tens of thousands without shelter. In instances like these, the lack of precise early warnings contributes to extensive human and material loss, highlighting the urgent need for improved flood risk management.
Today, flood risks are further complicated by pluvial flooding, which occurs when heavy rainfall overwhelms urban drainage systems, causing dangerous, localised surface floods. Standard weather forecasts often fail to address these specific risks, reinforcing the need for real-time, site-specific monitoring of rainfall and ground saturation. Access to reliable data empowers communities to anticipate and respond effectively to flood threats, shifting the focus from general predictions to actionable resilience.
This challenge is global. For example, recent UK reports show high awareness of surface water flooding among businesses, yet less than a third have implemented flood plans. Crucially, up to 70% of flood-related losses could be avoided with early warnings and adequate preparedness, underscoring the urgent need for data-driven solutions worldwide.
The following article introduces Previsico*, a portfolio company pioneering new approaches to flood forecasting, including a successful project delivering live forecasting services in Kisumu, Kenya. The case study on demonstrates how innovation in this field has the potential to transform flood resilience for communities everywhere.
*A portfolio company of InsuResilience Investment Fund Private Equity II SCA SICAV-RAIF (“IIF II”).
This fund has been closed for investments. Information for illustrative purposes only.
Previsico: The latest addition to the portfolio of IIF II
Previsico is at the forefront of addressing global flooding challenges through its innovative flood forecasting technology. Founded by Professor Dapeng Yu and Dr Avi Baruch, researchers from Loughborough University, the company has scaled its operations since 2019 under the leadership of CEO Jonathan Jackson.
Previsico’s technology is distinguished by its multinational coverage and site-specific insights. It has established commercial credibility through partnerships in the UK, US, Italy and Kenya, and continues to lever its competitive edge through a focus on insurer adoption and international expansion. With growth capital from Burnt Island Ventures, Previsico is accelerating its US market expansion; and, with the support of IIF II, the company will deepen its reach in high-growth emerging markets, where protection gaps and demand for climate resilience are most acute.
Enhancing forecasting accuracy
Previsico’s proprietary platform aggregates diverse datasets – including live sensor, satellite, and weather data – to deliver highly accurate, property-level surface water flood forecasts and warnings up to 48 hours in advance. These insights support insurers, utilities, property owners, and public authorities in mitigating risk and minimising losses, providing a level of accuracy and granularity that sets Previsico apart from traditional forecasting models.
The site-specific granularity of Previsico’s models enables business owners and communities to activate flood readiness procedures with a high degree of conviction – an essential advantage, as implementing mitigation measures can be costly.
Enabling insurance innovation
As part of their service offering, Previsico has begun installing IoT flood sensors in high-risk areas. The data produced by these sensors is integrated into the forecasting process, providing enhanced information that supports better decision-making. This development holds significant potential for creating parametric insurance products.
A good example of this is the company’s newly established partnership with Descartes, a global specialist in parametric insurance solutions for climate and emerging risks. Through the partnership they have begun delivering accurate flood notifications and rapid claims processing to businesses in the UK and Ireland.
When Previsico’s Internet of Things (IoT) flood sensors detect a covered incident, insurance policies provided by Descartes are triggered, allowing for expedited claim settlements.
Aiming to replicate Kisumu
Previsico has successfully executed a project in Kisumu, Kenya, where they established a live forecasting service for the city, funded through grants. This forecast was used by 30 volunteers from the Kenyan Red Cross – their implementation partners – and played a crucial role in supporting responses for multiple events.
Previsico plans to launch a global 30m2 forecasting service that does not rely on sensors, driven by increasing demand from insurers and multinational customers. They intend to deliver this service to humanitarian organisations, municipalities, utilities and NGOs to enable better risk management.
This initiative aims to expand the global product portfolio by incorporating enhanced local forecast data and sensor technology. Engagements are already underway in cities such as Kisumu, Nairobi, Mombasa, Dares Salaam, Tamale, Lagos, Accra, Dhaka, Jakarta, Semarang, Solo, Mexico City, and Hanoi.
By 2030, the goal is to have 5 cities operational with enhanced forecasting capabilities supported by 1,000 sensors. The company anticipates generating revenue from 1 million insured assets in emerging markets, establishing their service, and supporting 50 humanitarian organisations across 20 countries.
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